Meta plans to release AI-powered prediction market app, documents show

Meta plans to launch an AI-powered prediction market app to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket, according to internal documents reviewed by NPR. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg instructed a team to build a standalone app called Arena, also described with code names “Antwerp” and “FBForecast.” The documents say users would not wager real money; instead they would receive a daily virtual allotment of “play money” to bet on yes-or-no outcomes tied to real-world events. Meta’s AI would generate questions from trending topics using its Llama large language model, provide personalized market recommendations, and resolve markets in near real time. The app is expected to cover “near real-time” yes/no bets, and would follow a “rebuild” approach of Meta’s earlier Forecast app, which launched in 2020 and was shut down two years later.