Nvidia's Toughest Competition in 2028 May Be the Chips It Already Sold

Nvidia’s AI hardware demand may be outpacing its supply, but the chips already shipped could remain in service longer than the company’s next growth cycles assume. The article cites Nvidia’s data center revenue rising from $47.5 billion in fiscal 2024 to $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025 and $193.7 billion in fiscal 2026, totaling about $309 billion across the last two years. It then compares depreciation schedules: Microsoft often uses 2–6 years, Alphabet generally 6, and Meta recently set many servers to 5.5 years, affecting earnings. The concern for 2028 is that replacement demand may be limited because much 2024–2025 hardware won’t retire until around 2029–2030.