Boeing's (BA) Jet Demand Outlook Is Strong, but 737 and 777 Delays Remain a Risk

Boeing’s jet demand outlook remains strong over the next 20 years, but risks tied to delivery capacity and certification delays continue to affect the company’s path to meeting demand. Boeing expects 43,625 commercial aircraft deliveries from 2026 through 2045, including 33,545 single-aisle jets (about 77% of expected demand) and 7,715 widebodies, plus 930 freighters and 1,435 regional jets. The forecast is largely unchanged from last year and is above Airbus’ recently lowered projection of 42,060. Airbus cut its estimate by 1%, citing the war in Iran and trade tensions. Boeing estimates the industry will begin 2026 with a shortage of nearly 2,000 aircraft; single-aisle gaps could last until the end of the decade, with widebody shortages extending into the early 2030s. Boeing’s delivery pressure is also linked to certification delays for the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 10, and 777-9. Passenger traffic growth is forecast at 2.3% this year, then 6%–7% in 2027 and 5%–6% in 2028.