How should we score the preseason production predictions?

The piece revisits an earlier set of preseason posts where a writer projected WAR production for several Atlanta Braves players and asked readers to submit their own WAR estimates plus confidence levels. With the season nearing completion and the team having clinched the division, the author says it’s time to “score” those predictions—but notes the math is tricky because WAR is a cardinal metric and respondents entered a single number and confidence each. Different scoring approaches are debated, including whether to reward correct guesses proportionally to confidence or use distance-from accuracy with confidence-weighted penalties. The central question is how to reward closeness while deciding how sharply to penalize larger misses.